Alaska primary sends two Dan Sullivans to November ballot as federal probe targets same-name challenger

Alaska's open primary, which advances the top four finishers regardless of party to a ranked-choice general election, produced an unusual November ballot on Tuesday: incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan moved forward alongside a same-name challenger whom the senator and others characterize as a confusion candidate placed to siphon votes. Senator Dan Sullivan finished close behind Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola in the primary count. The second Dan Sullivan, identified in state voter records as Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., came in a distant third.

The suspected tactic follows a recognizable pattern. Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired federal employee and teacher, initially filed for the ballot under the name "Dan Sullivan." Alaska's Division of Elections treated that as evidence he intended voters to mistake him for the incumbent, given that his voter registration records carried his full name. State officials moved to remove him from the ballot; the Alaska Supreme Court overruled that decision. He shifted his party registration to Republican immediately before filing; he had never previously registered under that party. His campaign had ties to a Democratic political consultant with a record of supporting Democrats. Reuters reported this week that the U.S. Department of Justice has opened a federal investigation into the second Sullivan's campaign and has issued grand jury subpoenas.

For Alaska's resource industries, Sullivan's seat carries weight. The state's most important economic issues, including oil and gas development, mining, federal lands, and Arctic development, depend on the Senate duo of Sullivan and Senator Lisa Murkowski retaining the seniority to act on them.

Senator Sullivan, 61, has held the seat since winning it in 2014. His record includes military service in the Marine Corps, where he retired as a colonel after an extended deployment from 2004 to 2006 across the Middle East, Horn of Africa, and Central Asia. Before the Senate, he served Alaska as Natural Resource Commissioner and Attorney General, and the federal government as Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy and Business Affairs under President George W. Bush from 2006 to 2009.

The general-election turnout history favors him. Tuesday's primary drew roughly 109,000 Alaskans. In the 2024 general election, 340,981 voted after 108,906 participated in the primary. In 2022, 267,047 voted in the general after about 190,000 participated in the primary. On balance, the Republican lean of the state and the expected surge in general-election participation work in Sullivan's favor. President Trump carried Alaska by 13 points two years ago.

The DOJ investigation, with grand jury subpoenas already issued, is the open variable heading into November.