Bitcoin and ethereum slip as Fed rate hike odds climb to 66.4%

Bitcoin and ethereum prices retreated on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, as mounting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase weighed on the digital assets. Bitcoin opened at $78,559.11, up 1.1% from Monday's opening price, but fell to $77,945.97 by 8:19 a.m. ET. Ethereum opened at $2,467.13, a 2% gain over Monday, before edging down to $2,454.23 in the same timeframe.

The CME Group's FedWatch tool currently shows a 66.4% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points later this month, with a 33.6% chance of rates remaining unchanged. This shift in market expectation is a notable reversal from the previous week, when economists estimated a 60.4% likelihood of no change and a 39.6% chance of a hike.

The ongoing war in Iran is complicating the Fed's effort to control price growth. First U.S. attacks against Iran occurred this weekend, and recent threats of additional strikes by President Trump have driven oil prices higher alongside rate hike expectations. Higher rates limit crypto price growth because bitcoin and ethereum do not pay interest to investors.

Performance data for the period ending September 1, 2026, indicates the following changes in opening prices:

Asset	One Week Ago	One Month Ago	One Year Ago
Bitcoin	-0.5%	+25.1%	-27.4%
Ethereum	-0.6%	+32.6%	-43.8%

Bitcoin's all-time high remains $128,198.07, recorded on October 6, 2025, while its all-time low was $0.04865 on July 14, 2010. Ethereum's all-time high stands at $4,953.73 from August 24, 2025, with an all-time low of $0.4209 on October 21, 2015.

The Ethereum blockchain is distinct from ether (ETH), the cryptocurrency used to run applications and store value on that network. Investors may trade short-term, accumulate holdings slowly, or engage in staking to earn yield by helping run the network. Ether is significantly more volatile than the S&P 500 but is now considered a foundational piece of a modern digital portfolio rather than a speculative moonshot.