Lions-Bills total moves higher after Week 1 scoring; analyst backs under 54.5 for Thursday Night Football
Against the backdrop of a betting line that has already moved higher after last weekend's scoring, Thursday Night Football's Week 2 matchup arrives priced for a shootout. The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills are the clubs in…
Key takeaways
- The betting total for the Week 2 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills moved higher after both teams' Week 1 scoring, and analyst David (@futureprez2024) argues the market is overcorrecting.
- David backs the game total to finish under 54.5 points.
- The Lions opened 1-0 despite blowing a 21-point lead against New Orleans, with the game going to overtime where Detroit failed on fourth down and the Saints converted.
- The Bills beat the Houston Texans 36-31 as Josh Allen threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 23 yards and two more scores.
- David's under case rests on Thursday games historically scoring lower than their lines, Buffalo's newly redone field possibly not being at full quality, and both staffs having a week to install defensive corrections.
Against the backdrop of a betting line that has already moved higher after last weekend's scoring, Thursday Night Football's Week 2 matchup arrives priced for a shootout. The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills are the clubs in question, and analyst David (X/Twitter: @futureprez2024) argues the market may be overcorrecting.
Detroit's opener against New Orleans gave the betting market something to price on both sides of the ball. The Lions built a 21-point lead through three quarters before the Saints erased the margin without even using a hurry-up offense, which is what made the collapse most notable. The game went to overtime, where Detroit drove effectively but could not convert on fourth down; New Orleans did. The Lions' defense could not get off the field when it needed to, though it held the Saints short on a two-point conversion attempt that would have cost Detroit the game outright. Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown each scored twice on offense, and the Lions left Week 1 at 1-0.
Buffalo's Week 1 read-through is cleaner. The Bills beat the Houston Texans 36-31. Josh Allen threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns, then carried for 23 yards and two more scores on the ground. DJ Moore, relatively new to the Bills' offense, caught five passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. Houston entered the season expected to field one of the stronger defenses in the league; Allen moved through it without evident difficulty. The Bills have tended toward double-digit wins each year by keeping Allen in position to decide close games, and Week 1 fit that pattern.
The case for the under at 54.5
The combined output from both openers pushed the total higher, but David's argument is that the adjustment overstates a single week of data. He backs the total finishing below 54.5. Thursday night games have historically trended lower-scoring than their lines; the Bills' newly redone field may not be at full playing quality after recent work; and both coaching staffs will have had the week to install defensive corrections that their Week 1 opponents could not anticipate.
The live risk to that thesis is Detroit's defense, which the Saints carved through even without using a hurry-up tempo. If that exposure carries into Thursday, the total has room to run well past 54.5.
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