Senate Republicans weigh Mississippi spending amid polling concerns

Senate Republicans are evaluating three emergency spending measures, including a cash infusion for Mississippi, to protect seats that appeared secure six months ago. The party is also considering additional funding for South Carolina and Kansas as Democratic challengers gain traction in traditionally red states.

The shift reflects growing anxiety within the Republican establishment over the Senate map. It has been 94 years since Kansas elected a Democratic senator, 44 years for Mississippi, and 28 years for South Carolina. Despite these historical margins, internal GOP polls show Democratic challengers polling within the margin of error in more than half a dozen deep-red states. One national Republican political operative told Axios, "The wall has broken. The enemy is inside the fort. We are now fighting hand to hand."

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) faces a map that no longer appears impregnable. Two weeks ago, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) decided against spending in Idaho, South Dakota, and Mississippi after taking out a $5 million "insurance policy" in South Carolina. At that time, operatives concluded those states did not require additional financial support. However, the party is now reviewing the Mississippi race, where Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces a competitive bid from Democratic district attorney Scott Colom. Senate Majority PAC, the primary super PAC for Senate Democrats, announced a $1.2 million investment in that race on Tuesday.

SLF has significantly increased its spending in other contested districts since early June. The group initially reserved $28 million in TV advertising in Ohio and $11 million in Iowa to reinforce a Midwestern red wall. Those figures have since ballooned to $93 million in Ohio and $53 million in Iowa. In South Carolina, SLF’s spending rose from an initial $5 million buy to $8.5 million, according to AdImpact. A super PAC linked to Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is also spending another $500,000 in South Carolina.

For Kansas, SLF has earmarked $14 million and has spent nearly $12 million so far. Another operative told Axios, "No Republican seat is safe this cycle." While some candidates remain less concerning, such as Sen. Ashley Moody in Florida and Sen. Mike Rounds in South Dakota, the overall sentiment remains cautious.

Financial constraints are emerging despite aggressive spending. The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $31.4 million last month but appears to have drained its coffers, taking out a $20 million loan to support its coordinated campaign strategy. SLF ended September with $155 million in cash on hand, per its FEC filing. The group has spent or reserved $169 million worth of video ads since October 1, according to AdImpact.

President Trump stated on Truth Social on Tuesday that he plans to release another $100 million before Election Day, bringing the total from his super PACs to $400 million. While Republicans may still maintain their Senate majority, current polling is not providing them with significant confidence in that outcome.