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TD Cowen Warns Crypto Market Structure Bill Passage Far From Assured Before Midterms

TD Cowen, the financial-services research firm, is urging caution on one of the crypto industry's most-anticipated legislative bets: the firm says passage of the crypto market structure bill — formally known as the Clarity Act —…

By Dev Okafor·June 29, 2026·二〇二六年六月二十九日·2 min read

HONG KONGJune 29, 2026

TD Cowen, the financial-services research firm, is urging caution on one of the crypto industry's most-anticipated legislative bets: the firm says passage of the crypto market structure bill — formally known as the Clarity Act — is "far from assured" before the November midterm election. That assessment is a direct challenge to any trade or business plan built around expecting a near-term regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States.

What TD Cowen Is Actually Saying

"Far from assured" is deliberate language. It is not a flat prediction of failure, but it is a firm signal to clients that the Clarity Act should not be treated as a near-term catalyst. The Clarity Act is described in the source as a market structure bill — the kind of legislation that would define how digital assets are classified, traded, and overseen. For an industry that has spent years operating under a disputed patchwork of agency rulings and enforcement actions, that framework has been widely treated as the unlock. TD Cowen is saying: do not count on it arriving on schedule.

The Midterm Calendar Problem

Congressional calendars shrink fast ahead of midterm elections. Recesses, competing priorities, and the political sensitivity of going on record on contested issues all conspire to kill or delay legislation that lacks an unambiguous path to a floor vote. TD Cowen's framing suggests the firm sees those structural headwinds as real, not ceremonial.

What This Means for Market Participants

The practical implication is that businesses and investors waiting for the Clarity Act before making structural commitments to U.S. digital asset markets may be waiting longer than the industry's more optimistic voices have suggested. TD Cowen's note is a reminder that Washington's timeline and the industry's wishlist have rarely matched — and that this cycle appears to be no exception.

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Key takeaways

Frequently asked

What is the Clarity Act?

It is the formal name for the crypto market structure bill, legislation that would define how digital assets are classified, traded, and overseen in the United States.

Does TD Cowen think the bill will fail?

No; "far from assured" is not a prediction of failure but a firm signal that the Clarity Act should not be treated as a near-term catalyst.

Why might the bill be delayed?

Congressional calendars shrink ahead of midterm elections, and recesses, competing priorities, and political sensitivity can kill or delay legislation lacking a clear path to a floor vote.

What should market participants do with this information?

Businesses and investors should recognize they may wait longer than optimistic voices suggest before a U.S. regulatory framework arrives, and avoid building plans around its near-term passage.