Trump's Iran grudge sets the tone for NATO summit as European defense burden shifts

The Iran conflict's aftershocks have reached the NATO summit table in Ankara, where the fracture between Washington and its European allies has hardened past skepticism into open contempt. President Donald Trump, who has publicly humiliated several allied leaders since the Iran war, arrives in Turkey on Tuesday still demanding what no defense-spending chart can buy: loyalty.

Allied refusals deepen the rupture

Trump's anger centers on allies who refused to open air bases for U.S. strikes on Iran or send forces to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He has mocked Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, claiming she "begged" him for a photo at the G7 and posting a meme with the caption "Restraining order needed." He called U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer weak and suggested his hesitation over Iran showed he was "no Winston Churchill." Even NATO chief Mark Rutte's attempt to flatter Trump with a gold-lettered chart touting "The Trump Trillion" in allied defense spending failed to move him.

Pentagon footprint already contracting

Against the backdrop of this diplomatic estrangement, the U.S. military presence in Europe has begun to shrink ahead of any summit outcome. The Pentagon cut the number of U.S. Army brigade combat teams in Europe from four to three, canceling a planned deployment of roughly 4,000 troops to Poland. Available jets, tankers, and warships for NATO in a crisis have also been reduced, forcing European planners to prepare for conflict with less American firepower on the continent.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth launched a six-month review of U.S. forces in Europe last month, calling allies "shameful" for refusing base access during the Iran strikes. One U.S. official told Axios the review could produce further adjustments. A second said a full NATO drawdown is not on the summit agenda, but acknowledged: "The president isn't happy with the Europeans."

The 5% demand and Greenland's return

U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said Sunday that Trump will push allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, framing it as part of a broader goal to transfer "the burden of the conventional defense of Europe" to Europe and Canada. The read-through for European defense budgets is direct: that demand arrives as the Pentagon's own cross-border presence is already being drawn down.

Trump's administration also reiterated his desire to take control of Greenland from Denmark. One official called it "the best way to meet the defense needs of NATO," arguing it gives Washington a position to check Russia in the Arctic Ocean. Denmark and NATO allies are opposed.

Bilateral meetings, weapons, and Ukraine's battlefield hand

Trump meets Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Tuesday afternoon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu privately asked Trump on Friday to hold back advanced weapons sales to Turkey, citing Erdoğan's escalating anti-Israel rhetoric. Whether that request holds adds a live variable to the bilateral.

Wednesday brings a NATO leaders' working session and separate meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Ukrainian officials are seeking Patriot air defense systems and a new U.S. push toward ending the war. A U.S. official said Washington sees Ukraine holding the battlefield advantage, which reduces White House urgency for a new diplomatic initiative. Trump told reporters Monday he is talking to both sides and wants the conflict over. One U.S. official's private read on Putin: "He's running out of meat for the meat grinder."

The summit closes Wednesday with a Trump press conference before he flies back to the White House Wednesday evening.