Altcoin season index falls to 39 as Bitcoin dominance rises to 60.15%

The Altcoin Season Index has dropped to 39, down from roughly 67 in early August, while Bitcoin dominance closed last week at 60.15%. According to Blockchain Center, the index measures how many of the top 50 cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin over a 90-day period, and a reading of 75 is required to confirm a broad altcoin rotation. The current figure indicates that a full season has not yet begun.

Ethereum (ETH) has gained 32.28% against Bitcoin (BTC) since the June low of 0.02525, reaching a seven-month high near 0.0334 on TradingView's weekly Binance chart. This level represents the highest point for the pair since January 2026. The price action broke out of a descending parallel channel that had capped the ratio since August 2025, with the breakout occurring at the end of June. The ratio has remained above that channel since the move.

Technical analysis places resistance at 0.03213, which corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the decline from 0.04327. The next barrier is the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 0.03426. Support is identified at 0.031, marking the April 2026 swing high for Ethereum against Bitcoin. Losing this level would cast doubt on the validity of the recent breakout. The weekly Relative Strength Index for the pair reads near 60 and continues to rise. At the time of writing, Ethereum traded at $2,472 and Bitcoin at $78,827, placing the ratio near 0.0313.

Bitcoin dominance, which tracks Bitcoin's share of total crypto market capitalization, cleared a descending trendline drawn from the June 2025 high and the upper boundary of a triangle formation last week. The metric gained 0.91% for the week. Resistance now sits at 60.50%, a zone that capped the metric in April and May 2026. Support rests at 58.54%, with stronger support at 58%, which was tested in June and July.

Derivatives data suggests a different market mood. Glassnode reported that 85% of altcoins now show funding rates above their mean, the highest print since Bitcoin traded at record levels. Glassnode noted that the altcoin market has entered a state of optimism, with such conditions potentially lasting for many weeks in an alt season. However, traders have crowded into altcoin longs while spot returns still trail Bitcoin, which trades roughly 37% below its October 2025 record.

Historically, altcoin seasons have followed new Bitcoin highs rather than drawdowns, a context that weakens the case for an immediate season without closing it entirely. Three potential outcomes remain for the market structure. If the ETH/BTC pair closes weekly above 0.03426 while dominance fails to break past 60.50%, it would indicate a genuine rotation. If dominance rises above 60.50% while the ratio stalls, it would signal an ether rally instead. A drop below 0.031 would imply the recent move was merely a relief bounce.