OpenAI revenue estimate gap rattles AI trade

Wall Street is set to recover ground on Friday after a discrepancy in OpenAI's reported revenue figures shook investor confidence in the artificial intelligence sector. Nasdaq 100 futures rose approximately 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% in early trading.

The market jolt followed a report by the Financial Times stating that OpenAI's annualised revenue was approaching $50 billion (€44.6bn) at the end of September. This figure, based on data shared with investors, stands about $20 billion (€17.8bn) below the $70 billion (€62.5bn) estimate previously circulated.

The divergence does not indicate missed sales targets or lost business. According to the Financial Times, the higher figure was an estimate constructed using a different accounting methodology. OpenAI's backers recalculated sales to align with the method used by rival Anthropic, which includes customer spending on AI models via cloud platforms like Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud as revenue. OpenAI excludes such transactions from its reported figures.

Using OpenAI's own accounting method, its revenue trails the $65 billion (€58bn) that Anthropic reportedly achieved at the end of July. However, the differing accounting practices make direct comparison difficult. OpenAI has not publicly responded to the reports.

The issue carries significant weight given OpenAI's current valuation of $852 billion (€760bn) as of March and its reported pursuit of at least $30 billion (€26.7bn) in new funding at a $1.4 trillion (€1.25tn) valuation.

Stocks of companies heavily invested in OpenAI's growth faced sharp declines on Thursday. Oracle, which supplies computing power to OpenAI, dropped 5.5%. CoreWeave, an AI cloud provider with multibillion-dollar contracts with the firm, lost nearly 8%. Major hyperscalers including Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta all fell by more than 1%.

Chipmakers also saw declines, with Nvidia down almost 3%, AMD down around 4%, and Broadcom down 4.35%. Broadcom is currently developing a custom chip for OpenAI. In Tokyo on Friday, SoftBank Group shares, which hold about 13% of OpenAI, fell as much as 7.3% before narrowing losses.

Despite the sell-off, other indicators suggest strong demand for AI hardware persists. Samsung estimated its third-quarter operating profit reached a record 107.4 trillion won ($80.2 billion or €71.5bn). If confirmed, this would surpass the $63.7 billion (€56.8bn) operating income Nvidia reported in its latest quarter.

TSMC reported that September sales rose 54.6% year-on-year, bringing third-quarter revenue to a record NT$1.49 trillion ($46.8 billion or €41.8bn). Investors will receive further clarity next week when ASML reports on October 14 and TSMC on October 15.

Potential listings for Anthropic as soon as November and for OpenAI next year could eventually reveal audited accounts.